The reconciliation process, which allows for a simple majority vote in the Senate, will heavily influence the fate of President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” particularly through the application of the Byrd Rule. This procedural mechanism is expected to prune various non-budgetary provisions from the sweeping legislation.
The House-approved bill, a comprehensive package of tax cuts, increased military and border spending, and reductions in Medicaid, faces the prospect of significant modification due to the Byrd Rule. This rule targets “extraneous matter” that has little to no impact on the deficit, potentially striking clauses related to AI regulations, gun control, or Planned Parenthood.
Beyond the procedural challenges, the bill is also encountering substantial opposition from Republican fiscal conservatives concerned about its projected impact on the national debt. Senators Ron Johnson and Rand Paul are particularly vocal, citing the CBO’s estimate of a $3.8 trillion increase in the deficit over ten years.
The controversial Medicaid cuts, including new work requirements, further complicate the bill’s journey. With a narrow Republican majority and the dual threats of internal dissent and procedural challenges, the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” is almost certainly headed for significant modifications before it can secure final approval.