The central challenge for Western diplomats, including President Trump, is parsing the true intentions behind Vladimir Putin’s current stance. Is the Russian leader genuinely fatigued by the war, as Trump has suggested, or is his posture part of a broader, more patient strategy to achieve his long-term goals?
The “fatigue” argument points to the heavy costs of the war—both in military casualties and economic strain from sanctions. From this perspective, Putin might be looking for a dignified exit, making this an opportune moment for a peace deal. Trump’s optimistic comments and the push for a quick summit are based on this interpretation.
The “strategy” argument suggests that Russia is merely feigning openness to diplomacy to relieve international pressure, buy time to regroup its forces, and sow division among Western allies. From this viewpoint, Lavrov’s calls for “thoroughness” are not a sign of caution but a deliberate tactic to slow-walk the process and control the outcome.
Ultimately, the U.S. and its allies are betting on the fatigue hypothesis while remaining wary of the strategy possibility. President Trump’s own admission that Putin might not want a deal reflects this dual awareness. The true answer will only become clear if and when the two leaders finally meet at the negotiating table.