The long shadow of Donald Trump and his unpredictable foreign policy looms over Europe’s scramble to devise a coherent postwar strategy for Ukraine. As European leaders try to formulate security guarantees, they are hampered by the uncertainty of what role, if any, the United States under Trump will play.
Trump has “vacillated” on the issue, leaving allies unsure of his commitment. At one meeting, he appeared to promise some form of US involvement, yet the details remain elusive. This forces European nations to plan for a future where they might have to manage continental security without a reliable American partner.
This uncertainty is a key factor in the current divisions. France’s push for a more robust, European-led force can be seen as a response to potential American disengagement. Conversely, Germany’s reluctance may stem from a fear of being left to face Russia without a firm US backstop.
Putin’s recent threat exploits this transatlantic uncertainty. He knows the Western alliance is not on solid ground regarding its long-term commitments. By issuing a hardline threat now, he raises the stakes for a Europe that is still trying to figure out if it can count on its most powerful ally, effectively paralyzing their decision-making process.