The global demand dilemma—the persistence of high oil use despite massive investments in clean energy—is explained by BP’s latest annual outlook, which raises long-term oil and gas demand forecasts. The energy major concludes that the geopolitical push for energy security has fundamentally slowed the clean energy transition, making the 2050 net-zero target unlikely.
BP’s revised figures indicate a persistent reliance on hydrocarbons. Oil consumption in 2050 is now projected to hit 83 million barrels per day (b/d), an 8% increase from the previous 77 million b/d estimate. Natural gas demand is similarly forecast to remain elevated at 4,806 billion cubic meters annually in 2050. Furthermore, BP has delayed the expected date of peak oil demand by five years, now projecting 103 million b/d in 2030.
BP’s chief economist highlights that geopolitical tensions, including the war in Ukraine and rising trade tariffs, are compelling nations to prioritize self-sufficiency. This security-first mentality risks pushing countries toward maximizing domestically produced fossil fuels over imported energy, thereby creating a major structural drag on global decarbonization efforts.
The report delivers a critical warning regarding climate thresholds. BP’s modeling shows that the current energy trajectory risks exceeding the 2∘C carbon budget limit by the early 2040s. This extended delay, the company cautions, will raise the economic and social costs required for future climate stabilization. To hit the net-zero goal, oil demand must fall aggressively to about 35 million b/d by 2050.
Despite the necessary and rapid deployment of renewable technologies—which are set to meet over 80% of new electricity demand by 2035—oil will remain the largest single source of primary global energy supply, holding a 30% share in 2035. Renewables are not expected to surpass oil’s market share until the late 2040s, illustrating the depth of the demand dilemma.