Mexico is facing a moment of truth as Donald Trump’s threatened 25% tariff on heavy-duty trucks poses a fundamental test for the newly minted United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The decision on whether to grant an exemption for USMCA partners will signal the true value of the pact and could redefine North American trade relations.
The stakes could not be higher for Mexico. As the source of 78% of US heavy truck imports, its manufacturing sector is profoundly exposed. A 25% tariff would be a devastating blow, potentially leading to factory closures and significant job losses. The entire rationale of the USMCA was to create a stable and predictable trade environment, and this tariff threatens to shatter that stability.
According to economist Neil Shearing, historical precedent is not on Mexico’s side. Most previous product-specific tariffs from the administration have not included USMCA exemptions. If this pattern holds, it would suggest that the US views the pact not as a set of binding rules, but as a framework that can be overridden by unilateral “America First” priorities.
This puts Mexico in a precarious position. It has invested significant political capital in the USMCA, seeing it as the cornerstone of its economic future. A failure by the US to honor the spirit of the agreement in this first major test would be a major diplomatic and economic setback.
The world is watching this North American drama unfold. If the USMCA proves to be an effective shield for Mexico, it will bolster faith in negotiated trade agreements. If Mexico is hit with the tariffs despite the pact, it will send a chilling message to all of America’s trading partners: no deal, no matter how recent, can offer guaranteed protection from unilateral action.